SAG Awards 2021: ‘Chicago 7’ win provides intrigue to Oscars

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The Display screen Actors Guild Awards had been handed out Sunday night time. Nicely, to be exact, they had been truly awarded by way of Zoom final week and people pre-recorded segments had been then broadcast in a quick, one-hour telecast Sunday.

Inevitably, the information of who received had already unfold round city. Whereas that didn’t depart a lot room for suspense, the leaks did release everybody’s Easter Sunday — a trigger for celebration even for these not lucky sufficient to win. And people winners had been historic: For the primary time, all 4 particular person film honors went to actors of colour.

The SAG Awards, voted on by the 129,500 lively members of SAG-AFTRA, are a dependable precursor to the Oscars. All 4 particular person SAG Awards movie winners have gone on to take the Oscar in two of the final three years, together with the 2020 quartet of Joaquin Phoenix, Renée Zellweger, Laura Dern and Brad Pitt. (Looks like 100 years in the past, proper?)

Will we see the same sweep this 12 months? Let’s take a more in-depth have a look at how issues would possibly shake out on the Academy Awards on April 25.

FILM ENSEMBLE

Winner: “The Trial of the Chicago 7″

The previous: The winner of this award went on to take the most effective image Oscar 12 of 25 years, together with final 12 months when “Parasite” received each prizes. Nonetheless, it’s simply the SAG Awards’ least-trustworthy Oscar precursor. (The ensemble prize wasn’t awarded in 1994, the SAG Awards’ first 12 months.)

Will historical past repeat itself? Nah. “Chicago 7″ and “Minari” had been the one two of SAG’s ensemble nominees even in the most effective image race. Oscar front-runner “Nomadland” was absent as a result of its forged was populated largely by nonprofessional actors, and guild voters aren’t going to reward that. The ensemble omission was once a giant deal till current years, when “The Form of Water” and “Inexperienced Ebook” received the most effective image Oscar with no SAG forged nomination. So “Nomadland” partisans have little trigger for concern.

That mentioned, there are individuals — a few of them not even employed by Netflix (a quantity shrinking by the day in Hollywood) — who argue that Aaron Sorkin’s “Chicago 7″ stands as a believable different to a “Nomadland” Oscar coronation. It’s actually a extra typical film — a wonderfully effective courtroom drama stuffed with rousing idealism, Important Truths and nice appearing. (With this deep bench, this film was virtually laboratory engineered to win the SAG ensemble award.) “Chicago 7″ may not be most individuals’s favourite nominated film, but it surely’s preferred properly sufficient to point out up excessive on movie academy members’ ranked preferential ballots.

However, actually, I don’t know if “Chicago 7″ goes to elicit that many second- or third-place picks. And if voters occurred to see “Mangrove,” one of many 5 motion pictures in Steve McQueen’s “Small Axe” anthology on Amazon Prime, they may come away with a clearer understanding of “Chicago 7’s” shortcomings in its method to historical past. That the academy’s administrators department ignored Sorkin is an indication {that a} good many individuals are already hip to this information.

LEAD ACTRESS

Viola Davis as Ma Rainey in "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom."

Viola Davis as Ma Rainey in “Ma Rainey’s Black Backside.”

(David Lee / Netflix)

Winner: Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Backside”

The previous: SAG and the academy have matched 19 of 26 years, with Zellweger capturing each prizes final 12 months.

Will historical past repeat itself? SAG Awards’ voters love Davis. That is her fifth particular person win, encompassing 4 completely different initiatives. (She beforehand received for “The Assist” and “Fences” and for her starring activate ABC’s “Learn how to Get Away with Homicide.”) Her win for her moderately temporary display time (at the very least, for a lead flip) because the swaggering blues singer in “Ma Rainey” throws the Oscar race into disarray. (Hurray for intrigue!)

I’d assume Carey Mulligan stays the favourite for “Promising Younger Girl,” given the movie’s general power with academy voters, together with nominations for image, director and unique screenplay. (“Ma Rainey” was not nominated for finest image.) However Davis doesn’t have a lead actress Oscar (her “Fences” win got here in supporting), and there is perhaps a motion to point out her respect within the major class.

LEAD ACTOR

Chadwick Boseman in "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom."

Chadwick Boseman as Levee in “Ma Rainey’s Black Backside.”

(David Lee / Netflix)

Winner: Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Backside”

The previous: This class has been probably the most dependable indicator of Oscar victory, with SAG and the academy matching 21 of 26 occasions. There are occasional exceptions: Denzel Washington prevailed right here three years in the past, solely to see Casey Affleck take the Oscar.

Will historical past repeat itself? Boseman has been the overwhelming favourite to win since voters first noticed his electrifying flip as Levee, a Black musician raging at injustice and God as he fights for his place on this planet. It’s the final likelihood to honor Boseman, not only for this wonderful efficiency but in addition for a profession marked by heat, generosity and goal. There’s no manner the academy passes up that chance.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Alan Kim and Yuh-Jung Youn in "Minari."

Alan Kim as David and Yuh-Jung Youn as his grandmother Soonja in “Minari.”

(A24)

Winner: Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari”

The previous: The SAG award winner has gone on to take the Oscar 18 of 25 occasions. (Kate Winslet received this class in 2009 for “The Reader” however was nominated for — and received — the Oscar for lead actress for that efficiency.)

Will historical past repeat itself? This race seemed prefer it may go any variety of methods, significantly because the supporting actress Oscar has provided some surprises over time. However Youn’s win feels prefer it’ll keep on with the academy, if for no different cause that it’s a pleasant strategy to honor a film that everybody likes. “Minari” is a splendidly intimate and absorbing household drama that’s elevated to next-level greatness when Youn arrives halfway by means of the movie.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Darrel Britt-Gibson, Daniel Kaluuya and Lakeith Stanfield in “Judas and the Black Messiah.”

Daniel Kaluuya as Chairman Fred Hampton in “Judas and the Black Messiah.”

(Glen Wilson / Warner Bros.)

Winner: Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah”

The previous: The SAG winner has gone on to win the Oscar 17 occasions in 26 years, together with Pitt’s victory (and subsequent stand-up routine) final 12 months.

Will historical past repeat itself? After Kaluuya’s costar LaKeith Stanfield earned a shock Oscar nomination in supporting (Warner Bros. had campaigned for him in lead), there was some concern that the 2 nice actors would possibly divide the votes among the many “Judas” contingent, resulting in a victory for another person. (Maybe “Chicago 7″ standout Sacha Baron Cohen?) That would nonetheless occur, however Kaluuya’s SAG win strengthens his front-runner standing. And hopefully, Stanfield will get his Oscar someplace down the highway.

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